Understanding Tasmania's future climate

By 2021 we will be:

• Ensuring we have the best available evidence about our future climate; and
• Using tailored and accessible information to support decision making based on our future climate.

Tasmania is fortunate to have a world class capability in Antarctic, Southern Ocean and climate science, led by organisations such as the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC), Commonwealth Scientific  and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), and the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS).

Since 2010, Tasmania has benefited from downscaled climate change projections developed by the Climate Futures for Tasmania project. This project was undertaken by ACE CRC with funding from the Tasmanian Government and other parties.¹

This work projected the impact of changes to Tasmania’s climate from 1961 to 2100 and provided information about these impacts in areas such  as agriculture, water catchments, extreme events and future fire danger.  The Climate Futures for Tasmania project has provided the foundation for Tasmania’s adaptation planning.

Developments in climate science continue to allow for more research areas to be explored. It is important that our evidence base take account of these developments. New climate models are being released as part of the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report. We need to consider the implications of these models for Tasmania to ensure  we make informed decisions  for our future in areas such as agricultural production, land use planning, infrastructure investment and emergency management.

The Tasmanian Government will continue to work in partnership with communities, businesses and organisations to understand and address their needs in relation to climate projections. By working in partnership with our Antarctic and climate science community, we can continue to build our understanding of future climate impacts. The Tasmanian Government strongly advocated for the Hobart-based CSIRO National Climate Science Centre, and will continue to advocate for a commitment to climate science in Australia.

The actions for this priority area focus on:

• Working with ACE CRC, CSIRO, IMAS and other partners in government and industry to ensure the best available scientific data continues to be available;
• Delivering research to improve our understanding of the likelihood and impact of multi-hazard coincident extreme events in Tasmania, as experienced in January 2016 when bushfires
  in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA) occurred at the same time as severe flooding on the East Coast;
• Providing tailored information based on current climate change projections to support decision making across all sectors; and
• Continuing to promote and support the National Climate Science Centre in Hobart.

¹ For further information on the Climate Futures for Tasmania project see http://acecrc.org.au/climate-futures-for-tasmania.