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There is a range of scientific information available about the projected impacts of climate change at the local, national and international levels. The Tasmanian Government uses these resources to plan for, and adapt to, a changing climate. The three main sources of information are the Climate Futures for Tasmania project, the CSIRO/Bureau of Meteorology, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The Climate Futures for Tasmania (CFT) project is the most important source of Tasmanian climate change projections on a local scale. Between 2010 and 2012, the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre published the CFT reports that presented the first fine-scale local climate information for Tasmania.
Through CFT modelling, we have an understanding of how the Tasmanian climate is likely to change between now and 2100. In addition to general data there is specific information for agriculture, coastal impacts and water and catchments.
Hard copies of the CFT reports are available. Please contact firstname.lastname@example.org.
In 2015, CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology released comprehensive information about observed and projected climate change in Australia on the Climate Change in Australia website.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international organisation for the assessment of climate change. It is a scientific body managed by the United Nations and has 195 countries as members. Thousands of scientists from around the world contribute to the IPCC to review and assess the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information about climate change. The IPCC also sets international guidelines for measuring and calculating greenhouse gas emissions.
Future greenhouse gas emissions are the result of complex systems that are shaped by how societies and technology change over time. The IPCC develops emissions scenarios which are used in the analysis of possible climate change, its impacts, and the options to reduce emissions. Emissions scenarios are a set of assumptions about future greenhouse gas emissions, land use and other factors that influence climate change. They provide alternative images, or storylines, of what may happen in the future. A detailed explanation of these scenarios is available in the IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios.
The Climate Futures for Tasmania project found that the following projected changes are likely by 2100. The projections are based on two of the emissions scenarios set by the IPCC (as mentioned above).
Other impacts we are likely to experience in Tasmania include:
The Tasmanian Climate Change Office is working with communities, businesses and households to reduce the risks associated with these projected changes in our climate, and to minimise the potential for damage to our environment, assets and infrastructure.
Changes to the climate may also present opportunities for Tasmania. For example, because Tasmania’s climate is milder than other Australian states, the impacts of climate change in many cases will be more moderate. This could be beneficial for the agriculture, aquaculture and viticulture industries. A milder climate may also increase Tasmania’s standing as a tourism destination and potentially increase immigration, helping to deliver a stable and sustainable population that supports local economic growth.
More detailed information is available: